[Baltimore Sun] What to know as Trump, Harris face off for first presidential debate Tuesday
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Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will debate on Tuesday in what is likely to be the most significant single event in their battle for the White House.
With polls showing a tight race, the stakes are sky high because the first debate between candidates typically draws a huge audience and has the rare potential to shift opinions of millions of voters all at once.
This debate is crucial for another reason: Harris and Trump have never met or interacted with one another. Americans will get to judge for themselves how they match up and which one they want to lead the country for the next four years.
“People tune in not so much to hear what a candidate has to say on a specific issue but [to assess] their personal character: what blend of strength and sensitivity they’ll bring to their actual leadership,” said Lawrence Levy, a Hofstra University professor.
Anyone who doubts if 90 minutes can change the course of history need look no further than President Biden’s disastrous performance in the June clash with Trump, which eventually forced him to abandon his reelection bid and hand the Democratic baton to Harris.
That cataclysmic shift shook up the race and allowed Democrats to erase the strong lead Trump had built and put Harris slightly ahead as the campaign turns into its home stretch.
Here’s some things to watch as the debate looms:
When and how to watch
The debate will air on ABC at 9 p.m. on Tuesday. It will run for 90 minutes.
The moderators will be John Muir and Linsey Davis.
US Vice President Kamala Harris disembarks Air Force Two upon arrival at Miami International Airport on April 21, 2023. (Photo by Giorgio Viera / AFP) (Photo by GIORGIO VIERA/AFP via Getty Images)
How are Trump and Harris getting ready?
Harris arrived in Pittsburgh Thursday for a weekend of preparations, including mock debates.
Trump says he doesn’t plan to do extensive prep and doesn’t believe practice debates are helpful.
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Both campaigns agreed to debate under the same rules as the previous debate between Trump and Biden on June 27. (Getty)
What are the rules?
Both campaigns agreed to debate under the same rules as the previous debate between Trump and Biden.
The candidates’ microphones will be muted when the other one is speaking. There will be no live audience. The clash will be held at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia.
Candidates will stand at lecterns. They may only bring a pen and notepad and water. No notes or props are allowed.
There will be no opening statements and two minute closing statements.
Will there be any more debates?
That’s unclear. Trump has proposed three debates with Harris, including an initial one on Fox News on Sept. 4 that Harris never agreed to.
The Harris campaign says it will negotiate terms for a second debate with Trump in October if the first debate goes off as expected.
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Vice presidential nominees Tim Walz and JD Vance have agreed to debate on Oct. 1. (Getty)
What about the VPs?
Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance have agreed to debate on CBS on Oct. 1.
Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan will moderate. No other details have been revealed.
What issues will Trump and Harris stress?
Trump has mostly focused his campaign on two policy issues: immigration and the economy.
He will try to tie Harris to Biden’s unpopular record on both issues, even though both inflation and the crisis at the southern border have eased significantly in recent months.
The former president will also brand Harris a flip-flopper for dropping her previous support for a ban on fracking, a major issue in energy-producing Pennsylvania.
Harris will slam Trump over Project 2025, the controversial 900-page right-wing blueprint for a second Trump term that has struck a surprisingly powerful chord with voters. She will call him a threat to democracy for trying to overturn his loss in the 2020 election.
Perhaps most importantly, she will present herself as a strong advocate for abortion rights, which most Americans support. She will tear into Trump for his appointment of conservative judges who overturned Roe v. Wade as well as his opaque position on an abortion referendum in his home state of Florida.
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Kamala Harris speaks at a Labor Day event in Detroit this week. (Getty)
A split-screen for the ages
Harris is a 59-year-old Black woman who says she’s optimistic about America’s future. She presents herself as a candidate of change.
Trump is 78 and would be the oldest president in history. He says America is a nation in decline and needs a drastic change to pull it back from the abyss.
No one can predict whose vision will win out but it will certainly be one of the most dramatic contrasts in presidential debate history.
“She needs to continue to be the younger, far more appealing optimistic candidate of change and a better future,” said Tom Watson, a Democratic strategist.
Can Harris convince middle America she’s just like them?
Even though she’s been vice president for four years, many Americans say they don’t know much about Kamala Harris. That’s both an opportunity and a potential pitfall.
She’ll try to introduce herself as the product of a normal middle-class California upbringing and stress her mainstream political path, a portrait that might sway undecided Midwestern moderate or swing voters.
So far, Harris has sought to downplay the trailblazing nature of her run to become the first Black woman president. Most pundits don’t expect that to change on Tuesday.
“She’s going to let the optics of that kind of speak for themselves,” said Errin Haines, an editor for The 19th, an independent news site that covers gender and politics.
Soft touch or sharp elbows?
Many pundits say Harris should show she has the chops to tell Trump to his face that he is not fit to serve in the White House, especially after inciting the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
Karl Rove, a famed GOP strategist who engineered former President George W. Bush’s two White House wins, said Harris cannot be content to show voters she is smarter or different than Trump.
“[Harris] has to show she can stand up to him, that she can go toe-to-toe with him,” Rove said Saturday at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. “She needs to show she can do the job.”
“She needs to prosecute the case against him,” said Basil Smikle, a Columbia professor and Democratic strategist. “Make us the jury and lay out a case for why he doesn’t deserve to be president.
Watson said Harris must not miss the opportunity to inflict political damage on Trump by laying out the case against him on the debate stage.
“She should sharpen the edges, not soften them,” he said. “Take the hard questions directly at a much reduced and angry Trump. The major pitfall [for her] is in laying back too much.”
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Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at Trump Tower on Friday. (Getty)
Trump’s ‘soccer dad’ problem
Trump inspires unquestioned loyalty from his MAGA base and usually trains all his efforts on winning even more fervent support from them, especially working class white men.
But if there’s an opportunity for Trump in a debate where tens of millions are watching, it’s to try to win a somewhat bigger slice of everybody else.
He could do that by showing he’s just calm and trustworthy enough for a college-educated suburban father, for example, who may prefer Republican economic policies but dislike Trump’s personality.
“Trump would be wise to modulate in ways that Harris may not expect, and which could give him one final look from the moderate voters, particularly suburbanites,” said Levy, who studies political trends in suburbia.
Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist, agreed that Trump can win if he keeps his cool and stick to the issues.
“Trump must make her the incumbent, prosecute the case against the Biden-Harris administration, and present a positive vision for the country,” Mackowiak said. “If he does that, he will likely win reelection.”
Can’t they both just get along?
A presidential debate is far more than an exchange of ideas or sparring over issues. It’s a chance for a wide swath of voters to size up the two candidates, side by side, face to face.
Most voters have very strong opinions about Trump. He is likely to say some outrageous things and may even brazenly lie as he has done in past high-stakes appearances.
The spotlight will be on Harris to show how she handles his outsized personality, in part because they may see that as a test of her leadership ability.
“They want to judge how tough she is,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political analyst. “Everyone knows Trump is a bully, but so are many world leaders she would have to deal with as president.”
Haines predicted there is little chance Trump can resist launching some kind of ugly “racial or gendered” attack on Harris, perhaps by accusing her of being stupid or “nasty” like he did to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Doing so could be a big mistake for Trump by creating a viral moment that showcases his age and perceived intolerance to a changing America.
“He risks alienating voters the GOP needs,” Smikle said.
David Niven, a University of Cincinnati political scientist, compared sparring with Trump to having “a policy debate with a circus performer.”
“The way to win isn’t to pretend this is a traditional debate, or to start juggling,” he said. “You have to rise above it. Stick to your message. Stick up for yourself.
“And when Trump gets out of control,” he added, “hit him hard.”
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